Between 1970 and 2007, The Fed maintained a stable monetary policy. Total Fed assets remained at 6% of U.S. GDP through thick and thin. It worked. That sound policy successfully navigated the 1970 oil embargo, the 1980 great inflation, the 1987 market meltdown, the 1997 currency crisis and hedge fund debacle, Y2K, 9/11 and swine flu.
Frightened by the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis, the Fed made an abrupt shift away from its successful policies. It unilaterally launched a radical experiment with “quantitative easing”, adding trillions in government securities to its balance sheet. In 2020, faced with a Covid related contraction, it doubled down on its experiment and assets ballooned to nearly $9 trillion or 36% of GDP.
By 2022 , the quantitative easing experiment had unleashed strong inflation pressures, pushing inflation to a four decade high. Not only did the Fed abruptly abandon its failed experiment, the Fed went into full reverse mode, sending markets into a tailspin. Now it is in the process of dramatically reducing its assets and introducing yet another set of market uncertainties.
As the Fed printed massive amounts of money to stimulate the economy, U.S. money supply more than tripled. This growth was unprecedented. Then in 2022, realizing its quantitative easing was stimulating inflation rather than growth, it slammed on the brakes and money supply growth came to a screeching halt.
Even though the Fed "created" trillions of dollars of "new money", GDP growth remained lackluster. The Fed had clearly passed the point of diminishing returns.
With the Fed dominating financial markets and faced with the uncertainty of the QE experiment, consumers and businesses slowed their rate of spending and increased their precautionary cash holdings. This decreased money velocity and offset the expansion of the money supply. Since 2022, with money supply growth halted, velocity is increasing slightly but still well below its normal range.
Real median income of U.S. workers has barely changed over the past eighteen years during the QE experiment, even after trillions of dollars of Fed money printing.
Consumer purchasing power has fallen by 30% over the last eighteen years and it appears that inflation pressures are stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.